Here are some forecasts from BloombergNEF about the burgeoning electric vehicle marketplace for 2022:
• They predict 10 million plug-in vehicle sales, or about 14% of all global vehicle sales. Compare this to 6.6 million in 2021 and 3.2 million in 2020. This number includes plug-in hybrids, but most sales will be pure electrics. More competitive models, tighter emissions regulations, subsidies, and fleet purchases will drive the sales upward.
• Most of these sales will be in China, then Europe. The US lags behind, but given our truck culture the new F-150 Lightning and other electric truck models should help boost sales.
• Tesla’s Model Y should become one of the top five best-selling vehicles in the world.
• Sales of commercial EVs will rise about 75%. They expect 260,000 all-electric vans will be sold (versus an estimated 154,000 in 2021). Fleet orders will make up the bulk of these sales.
• The total number of public charging points globally will reach 2.7 million, up from 1.8 million in 2021. Charging companies are also working on improved consumer interfaces, payment options and reliability from existing chargers.
• Battery raw materials continue to have a tight supply, so there is less hope that battery prices will continue to decline as they have for many years.