A year or so ago all you heard in the media was how adoption of EVs was skyrocketing, while in the present all you hear is that EV sales are cratering. The truth as always is somewhere in-between. As GM’s Mary Barra said recently about the US outlook for EVs: “I think it was overhyped and now it’s probably underhyped. The truth is somewhere in the middle.”
Context matters. If you look at the numbers EV sales are flat, but most of the inertia is caused by Tesla (with 2 models long in the tooth and an interruption in Model 3 production) and GM (it discontinued its most popular model – the Chevy Bolt – before its replacement was ready, while experiencing production delays with its new line of Ultium batteries). If you exclude the Model 3 and the Bolt, US growth in EV sales was up 23% in Q1.
For example, Hyundai/Kia EV sales are up 56% year over year, and Ford’s are up 86%. Just last week someone told me anecdotally that the electric Ford F-150 Lightning was dead in the water. In Q1 Ford sold 7,700 Lightnings. It may not be as hot a seller as Ford would have initially hoped, but that is not an inconsequential number.
In 2024 GM, Hyundai and Ford are expected to each sell more than 100,000 EVs. GM in fact may lead the way, with electric versions of the Equinox and Blazer SUVs, along with the Silverado and Sierra pickups. EV adoption is decidedly not cratering.
No one can predict the future of the EV market, but what is happening out in the real world of showrooms is neither boom nor bust. Context and facts are a better indicator of reality than the latest hot takes.